The promise of AI is a massive productivity boom, but the reality is a short-term bust that can make experienced people slower. Today’s newsletter breaks down the signal in the noise of AI productivity.

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In today’s edition:

• Signal vs Noise— The Ultimate AI Productivity Paradox

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[Signal vs Noise]

The AI Productivity Paradox [Why Your Team Is Getting Slower]

You’ve heard the noise.

Every AI guru, vendor, and consultant is screaming it from the rooftops.

• "AI is the ultimate productivity hack."

• "It will 10x your output."

• "Your team will get more done, in less time, with fewer resources."

That's the promise.

But the reality on the ground?

It's a mess.

The data is in, and it tells a shocking story that no one wants to talk about.

For many, AI isn't a magic productivity button.

This is the AI Productivity Paradox.

And understanding it is the single biggest difference between companies that win with AI and companies that burn millions on failed pilot programs.

You and I are going to dive deep into the hard truths.

Let's go!

3 Shocking Truths About AI Productivity

It's not a theory.

It's what the data says is happening right now.

1) Your Best People Are Getting Slower

A rigorous study gave experienced developers AI coding tools.

They predicted they’d be 24% faster.

The reality?

They took 19% LONGER to complete their tasks.

Why?

Because AI disrupted their fine-tuned, expert workflows.

They spent more time correcting AI mistakes and wrestling with the tool than it would have taken to just do the work themselves.

2) Your Company Is Probably Wasting Its Money

Here's the killer stat from MIT.

95% of AI pilot programs deliver ZERO return on investment.

Companies are pouring billions into AI, and for the vast majority, it's like setting a pile of cash on fire.

A further 42% of enterprises report no measurable ROI from their full AI deployments.

So what's going on?

Are the tools bad?

No.

We're just using a 21st-century tool with a 20th-century mindset.

It Gets Worse Before It Gets Better

Imagine you decide to renovate your kitchen.

For the first few weeks, your house is a disaster.

It's noisy, dusty, and you're eating takeout on the floor.

Your "kitchen productivity" is at an all-time low.

It's chaos.

But eventually, the work is done, and you have a brand-new, hyper-efficient kitchen that's way better than the old one.

When you introduce a powerful, disruptive technology like AI, your team's performance will almost always go down before it goes up.

This dip is caused by the "intangible investments" that don't show up on a balance sheet:

• broken old habits

• learning new skills

• redesigning entire workflows

• building trust in a new system

The problem is, most leaders don't have the stomach for the dip.

They expect instant results, and when they see performance fall, they panic and pull the plug, often right before the curve is about to shoot upwards.

Real Bottleneck is not the Tech

It's Your Workflow.

Here’s the paradox in a nutshell:

• one study found that developers using AI completed 21% more tasks

• but the same study found that the time it took to review those tasks increased by 91%

• they didn't speed up the system, they just moved the bottleneck.

It's like giving a chef the world's fastest oven but still only having one person to wash the dishes.

The restaurant as a whole doesn't get any faster.

You've just created a massive pile of dirty pans.

You can't just slap a powerful tool on top of a broken or outdated process and expect magic.

The AI isn't the problem.

The workflow is.

How to Fight Back

The AI productivity paradox isn't a tech problem.

It's a leadership and strategy problem.

The winning companies get this.

• map out the entire workflow from start to finish

• redesign the whole process around the new capabilities AI gives you

• stop measuring vanity metrics like lines of code or tasks completed

• how long did it take to get this project from idea to happy customer

• focus on system velocity, not individual output

• find one specific, painful, and boring problem (It takes us 3 weeks to process these invoices)

• solve that with AI, prove the ROI, and then use that win to fund the next project

Final Thought

The AI productivity boom is real.

It's coming.

But it's not a free lunch, and it's not a magic tool you can just install.

It is a fundamental, and sometimes painful, change in how we work.

The companies that understand this will dominate the next decade.

The ones that don't will be stuck in an endless cycle of failed pilot programs, wondering why their fancy new tools are just making everyone busier.

Use AI as the catalyst to build a better one.

Happy AI

Signal vs Noise

This is the series in which I take the single AI topic of the week and deliver my sharp and original analysis.

If you want my analysis on any topic, reply with your topic to this email.

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